Back to UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
Prelims1 Flyweight

Rogerio Bontorin vs Raulian Paiva

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 ·Antel Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Rogerio Bontorin
Raulian Paiva
44% 56%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
27
Age
Δ 4y
24
17-4
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-6
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Bontorin: 8 sig / 2 TD · Paiva: 3 sig / 0 TD
Rogerio Bontorin
Raulian Paiva
51
Sig strikes landed
46
110
Sig strikes attempted
120
68
Total strikes landed
71
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
6.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Rogerio Bontorin

17-4 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
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Blue corner
L1

Raulian Paiva

21-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
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