Prelims1
Bantamweight
Geraldo de Freitas vs Chris Gutierrez
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
·Antel Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Geraldo de Freitas
Chris Gutierrez
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
67"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
13-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-7-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
de Freitas: 40 sig / 2 TD ·
Gutierrez: 48 sig / 1 TD
Geraldo de Freitas
Chris Gutierrez
48
Sig strikes landed
44
103
Sig strikes attempted
95
62
Total strikes landed
59
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
215s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Geraldo de Freitas
"Spartan"
13-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Gutierrez
"El Guapo"
23-7-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—