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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Tecia Pennington vs Marina Rodriguez

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Marina Rodriguez
41% 59%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
15-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
18-6-2
L3
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 41 sig / 0 TD · Rodriguez: 84 sig / 1 TD
Tecia Pennington
Marina Rodriguez
54
Sig strikes landed
91
136
Sig strikes attempted
195
71
Total strikes landed
125
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
160s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
4%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Tecia Pennington

"Tiny Tornado"
15-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
L UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
W The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
Blue corner
W1

Marina Rodriguez

18-6-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
D UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…