Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Zubaira Tukhugov
Lerone Murphy
48%
52%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
29
Age
Δ 0y
28
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tukhugov: 22 sig / 6 TD ·
Murphy: 28 sig / 0 TD
Zubaira Tukhugov
Lerone Murphy
35
Sig strikes landed
40
89
Sig strikes attempted
89
48
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Zubaira Tukhugov
"Warrior"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
Blue corner
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28