Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ottman Azaitar
Teemu Packalen
69%
31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Azaitar: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Packalen: 8 sig / 0 TD
Ottman Azaitar
Teemu Packalen
27
Sig strikes landed
21
43
Sig strikes attempted
48
49
Total strikes landed
33
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ottman Azaitar
"Bulldozer"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
Blue corner
L1
Teemu Packalen
"Pacu"
8-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
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