Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Takashi Sato
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
25-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-7
W1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Muhammad: 49 sig / 2 TD ·
Sato: 29 sig / 1 TD
Belal Muhammad
Takashi Sato
51
Sig strikes landed
39
117
Sig strikes attempted
105
66
Total strikes landed
44
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
154s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
W1
Takashi Sato
"Ten"
17-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—