Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Paul Felder
58%
42%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 2y
35
24-15
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-6
L1
Current streak
W1
21
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Barboza: 60 sig / 1 TD ·
Felder: 56 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Paul Felder
59
Sig strikes landed
59
130
Sig strikes attempted
132
63
Total strikes landed
68
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
55s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—