Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Davi Ramos
94%
6%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
29-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
11-4
W5
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makhachev: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Ramos: 7 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Davi Ramos
31
Sig strikes landed
5
60
Sig strikes attempted
23
60
Total strikes landed
15
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
309s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
Blue corner
W4
Davi Ramos
"Tasmanian Devil"
11-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—