🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Dustin Poirier
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
·The Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Dustin Poirier
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
30-0
Career record
Δ 24 pp
31-10
W8
Current streak
W5
11
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 22 sig / 7 TD ·
Poirier: 12 sig / 0 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Dustin Poirier
77
Sig strikes landed
53
154
Sig strikes attempted
126
128
Total strikes landed
84
5.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
8.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
499s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
52%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 11-0
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W5
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
22 fights · 17-4
Last 5
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—