Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Shamil Abdurakhimov
78%
22%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
29
Age
Δ 9y
38
20-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-8
W1
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Blaydes: 25 sig / 5 TD ·
Abdurakhimov: 3 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Shamil Abdurakhimov
38
Sig strikes landed
22
84
Sig strikes attempted
50
57
Total strikes landed
40
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
184s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
Blue corner
W3
Shamil Abdurakhimov
"Abrek"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—