Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Niko Price
70%
30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
17-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-11
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Neal: 41 sig / 2 TD ·
Price: 24 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Niko Price
33
Sig strikes landed
32
74
Sig strikes attempted
92
41
Total strikes landed
35
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
49s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
17-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
W1
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
17-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—