Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Arman Tsarukyan
21%
79%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 8y
23
11-6
Career record
Δ 20 pp
23-4
L2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aubin-Mercier: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Tsarukyan: 47 sig / 2 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Arman Tsarukyan
30
Sig strikes landed
27
55
Sig strikes attempted
47
48
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
L1
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—