Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marc-Andre Barriault
Krzysztof Jotko
26%
74%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
29
Age
Δ 0y
30
17-12
Career record
Δ 22 pp
25-6
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Barriault: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Jotko: 40 sig / 1 TD
Marc-Andre Barriault
Krzysztof Jotko
44
Sig strikes landed
54
82
Sig strikes attempted
119
59
Total strikes landed
72
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
44s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
W1
Krzysztof Jotko
25-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—