Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gavin Tucker
SeungWoo Choi
63%
37%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 8"
74"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
13-4
Career record
Δ 21 pp
11-9
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Tucker: 37 sig / 5 TD ·
Choi: 23 sig / 2 TD
Gavin Tucker
SeungWoo Choi
38
Sig strikes landed
44
68
Sig strikes attempted
93
48
Total strikes landed
45
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gavin Tucker
"Guv'nor"
13-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
L1
SeungWoo Choi
"Sting"
11-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—