Prelims2
Women's Flyweight
Gillian Robertson vs Sarah Frota
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
·Rogers Place
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gillian Robertson
Sarah Frota
66%
34%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
18-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
9-3
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Robertson: 29 sig / 2 TD ·
Frota: 9 sig / 0 TD
Gillian Robertson
Sarah Frota
32
Sig strikes landed
23
63
Sig strikes attempted
48
65
Total strikes landed
58
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
243s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
43%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gillian Robertson
"The Savage"
18-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
Blue corner
L1
Sarah Frota
"A Treta"
9-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—