Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Kyle Stewart
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
16-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-4
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Koch: 37 sig / 4 TD ·
Stewart: 23 sig / 0 TD
Erik Koch
Kyle Stewart
35
Sig strikes landed
24
75
Sig strikes attempted
57
50
Total strikes landed
39
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
240s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
L1
Kyle Stewart
"Gunz Up"
11-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—