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Main Women's Flyweight

Marilia Santos vs Lucrezia Ria

DWCS 3.7 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marilia Santos
Lucrezia Ria
61% 39%
Why
27
Age
Δ 0y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Santos: 66 sig / 1 TD · Ria: 61 sig / 1 TD
Marilia Santos
Lucrezia Ria
38
Sig strikes landed
36
82
Sig strikes attempted
84
68
Total strikes landed
62
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Marilia Santos

"Chocolate"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Lucrezia Ria

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27