Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steven Nguyen
Aalon Cruz
73%
27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Nguyen: 92 sig / 0 TD ·
Cruz: 132 sig / 0 TD
Steven Nguyen
Aalon Cruz
37
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
200s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Steven Nguyen
"The Ninja"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
Blue corner
Aalon Cruz
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
30