Back to DWCS 3.6
Main Women's Flyweight

Tracy Cortez vs Mariya Agapova

DWCS 3.6 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Tracy Cortez
Mariya Agapova
60% 40%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
26
Age
Δ 3y
22

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cortez: 66 sig / 4 TD · Agapova: 39 sig / 0 TD
Tracy Cortez
Mariya Agapova
36
Sig strikes landed
37
70
Sig strikes attempted
76
69
Total strikes landed
67
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tracy Cortez

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Mariya Agapova

"Money Mashka"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22