Main
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez vs Francisco Trinaldo
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Francisco Trinaldo
57%
43%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
27
Age
Δ 14y
41
18-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
29-9
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hernandez: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Trinaldo: 25 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Francisco Trinaldo
39
Sig strikes landed
43
85
Sig strikes attempted
78
48
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
89s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—