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Main Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski vs Ben Rothwell

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Ben Rothwell
19% 81%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
40
Age
Δ 3y
38
34-25
Career record
Δ 15 pp
39-15
L3
Current streak
L2
15
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 152 sig / 0 TD · Rothwell: 70 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Ben Rothwell
57
Sig strikes landed
48
91
Sig strikes attempted
99
60
Total strikes landed
59
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
75s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
34-25 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database 15 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
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L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
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W UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
L2

Ben Rothwell

39-15
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
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L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
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W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—