Prelims1
Featherweight
Alex Caceres vs Steven Peterson
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Steven Peterson
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
21-16
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-12
L1
Current streak
L1
20
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caceres: 94 sig / 0 TD ·
Peterson: 67 sig / 2 TD
Alex Caceres
Steven Peterson
68
Sig strikes landed
57
142
Sig strikes attempted
148
80
Total strikes landed
88
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
26s
Control time
230s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
20 fights · 9-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
L1
Steven Peterson
"Ocho"
19-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—