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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Mario Bautista vs Jin Soo Son

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mario Bautista
Jin Soo Son
71% 29%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
17-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bautista: 129 sig / 0 TD · Soo Son: 95 sig / 2 TD
Mario Bautista
Jin Soo Son
42
Sig strikes landed
35
101
Sig strikes attempted
107
64
Total strikes landed
62
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
196s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mario Bautista

17-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
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Blue corner
L1

Jin Soo Son

9-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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