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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Sam Alvey vs Klidson Abreu

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Klidson Abreu
58% 42%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 7y
27
33-19-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
15-5
L2
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alvey: 28 sig / 0 TD · Abreu: 36 sig / 1 TD
Sam Alvey
Klidson Abreu
36
Sig strikes landed
27
64
Sig strikes attempted
61
46
Total strikes landed
37
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
40s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Sam Alvey

"Smile'N"
33-19-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
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L UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
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W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
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Blue corner
L1

Klidson Abreu

"White Bear"
15-5 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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