Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Maki Pitolo
Justin Sumter
57%
43%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
80"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pitolo: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Sumter: 9 sig / 0 TD
Maki Pitolo
Justin Sumter
33
Sig strikes landed
24
56
Sig strikes attempted
59
51
Total strikes landed
33
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Maki Pitolo
"Coconut Bombz"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L1
Justin Sumter
7-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 2.7
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