Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jonathan Pearce
Jacob Rosales
52%
48%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Pearce: 142 sig / 4 TD ·
Rosales: 80 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Pearce
Jacob Rosales
37
Sig strikes landed
39
75
Sig strikes attempted
78
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
127s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jonathan Pearce
"JSP"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
Blue corner
Jacob Rosales
"The Lil Badger"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24