Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kenneth Bergh
Antonio Trocoli
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Bergh: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Trocoli: 5 sig / 1 TD
Kenneth Bergh
Antonio Trocoli
32
Sig strikes landed
36
61
Sig strikes attempted
77
68
Total strikes landed
52
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
170s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kenneth Bergh
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Antonio Trocoli
"Malvado"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29