Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Richie Santiago
Miles Johns
43%
57%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Santiago: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Johns: 73 sig / 3 TD
Richie Santiago
Miles Johns
33
Sig strikes landed
37
71
Sig strikes attempted
77
43
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Richie Santiago
"The Milford Mauler"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25