Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michael Lombardo
Kyle Daukaus
42%
58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lombardo: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Daukaus: 68 sig / 2 TD
Michael Lombardo
Kyle Daukaus
32
Sig strikes landed
41
68
Sig strikes attempted
82
47
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
106s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michael Lombardo
"The Don"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Kyle Daukaus
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26