Back to DWCS 3.2
Main Welterweight

Miguel Baeza vs Victor Reyna

DWCS 3.2 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Miguel Baeza
Victor Reyna
66% 34%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Baeza: 61 sig / 0 TD · Reyna: 89 sig / 0 TD
Miguel Baeza
Victor Reyna
37
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
64
54
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Miguel Baeza

"Caramel Thunder"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Victor Reyna

"Kelevra"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33