Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Devonte Smith
Khama Worthy
68%
32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Worthy: 21 sig / 0 TD
Devonte Smith
Khama Worthy
30
Sig strikes landed
24
70
Sig strikes attempted
52
38
Total strikes landed
30
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
53s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Devonte Smith
"King Kage"
12-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
Khama Worthy
"The Death Star"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33