Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Ian Heinisch
64%
36%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
24-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-5
W1
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brunson: 81 sig / 2 TD ·
Heinisch: 58 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Ian Heinisch
24
Sig strikes landed
24
52
Sig strikes attempted
50
37
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
Blue corner
W2
Ian Heinisch
"The Hurricane"
15-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—