Prelims1
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Cory Sandhagen
47%
53%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
28-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-6
L1
Current streak
W4
14
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Assuncao: 45 sig / 4 TD ·
Sandhagen: 62 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Cory Sandhagen
55
Sig strikes landed
62
128
Sig strikes attempted
131
67
Total strikes landed
81
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
W4
Cory Sandhagen
19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—