Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Nate Diaz
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
33
Age
Δ 2y
34
25-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
22-14
W1
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pettis: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Diaz: 114 sig / 1 TD
Anthony Pettis
Nate Diaz
71
Sig strikes landed
71
141
Sig strikes attempted
138
77
Total strikes landed
99
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
105s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
L1
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—