Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yoel Romero
Paulo Costa
29%
71%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
42
Age
Δ 14y
28
13-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-4
L1
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Romero: 125 sig / 1 TD ·
Costa: 118 sig / 0 TD
Yoel Romero
Paulo Costa
59
Sig strikes landed
66
128
Sig strikes attempted
141
53
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.60
89s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yoel Romero
"Soldier of God"
13-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W4
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
17-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—