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Main Middleweight

Marvin Vettori vs Cezar Ferreira

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marvin Vettori
Cezar Ferreira
80% 20%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
26
Age
Δ 9y
34
19-11-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-9
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vettori: 78 sig / 2 TD · Ferreira: 39 sig / 0 TD
Marvin Vettori
Cezar Ferreira
35
Sig strikes landed
31
82
Sig strikes attempted
77
53
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
128s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marvin Vettori

"The Italian Dream"
19-11-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
D UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
L UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
W UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Blue corner
L1

Cezar Ferreira

"Mutante"
13-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
W UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…