Back to UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Prelims2 Welterweight

Ismail Naurdiev vs Chance Rencountre

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ismail Naurdiev
Chance Rencountre
83% 17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
23
Age
Δ 10y
32
26-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Naurdiev: 21 sig / 2 TD · Rencountre: 4 sig / 2 TD
Ismail Naurdiev
Chance Rencountre
36
Sig strikes landed
28
83
Sig strikes attempted
76
61
Total strikes landed
46
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
-0.10
208s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
45%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ismail Naurdiev

26-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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Blue corner
W1

Chance Rencountre

"Black Eagle"
15-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
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