Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edmen Shahbazyan
Jack Marshman
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
22
Age
Δ 8y
30
17-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-10
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Shahbazyan: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Marshman: 0 sig / 0 TD
Edmen Shahbazyan
Jack Marshman
34
Sig strikes landed
18
77
Sig strikes attempted
51
51
Total strikes landed
28
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
17s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
17-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
24-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—