Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gilbert Melendez
Arnold Allen
27%
73%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
37
Age
Δ 12y
26
22-9
Career record
Δ 14 pp
22-4
L4
Current streak
W5
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Melendez: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 102 sig / 1 TD
Gilbert Melendez
Arnold Allen
30
Sig strikes landed
52
87
Sig strikes attempted
122
39
Total strikes landed
65
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
50s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
22-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 1-5
Last 5
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
W5
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—