Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Nohelin Hernandez
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
27
Age
Δ 1y
25
W3
Current streak
—
11
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Vera: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Hernandez: 22 sig / 1 TD
Marlon Vera
Nohelin Hernandez
46
Sig strikes landed
38
93
Sig strikes attempted
81
57
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
Blue corner
Nohelin Hernandez
"Suave"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25