Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Diego Sanchez
Michael Chiesa
63%
37%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
32-13
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-7
W2
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanchez: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Chiesa: 47 sig / 5 TD
Diego Sanchez
Michael Chiesa
30
Sig strikes landed
37
70
Sig strikes attempted
76
51
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
222s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
32-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
16 fights · 8-8
Last 5
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—