Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Ben Askren
62%
38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
36-17
Career record
Δ 23 pp
20-2
W1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Masvidal: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Askren: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Ben Askren
40
Sig strikes landed
41
77
Sig strikes attempted
123
51
Total strikes landed
61
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.7
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
72s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ben Askren
"Funky"
20-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—