Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Luke Rockhold
73%
27%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
36
Age
Δ 2y
35
29-12-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-7
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Blachowicz: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Rockhold: 14 sig / 0 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Luke Rockhold
41
Sig strikes landed
38
81
Sig strikes attempted
83
55
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jan Blachowicz
29-12-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
L1
Luke Rockhold
16-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—