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Prelims1 Lightweight

Jared Gordon vs Dan Moret

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos ·Target Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Dan Moret
72% 28%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
21-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
13-7
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gordon: 48 sig / 2 TD · Moret: 34 sig / 2 TD
Jared Gordon
Dan Moret
44
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
88
75
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.20
Knockdowns
-0.10
212s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jared Gordon

"Flash"
21-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
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W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
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W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
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Blue corner
L2

Dan Moret

"The Hitman"
13-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
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L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
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