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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Dalcha Lungiambula vs Dequan Townsend

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos ·Target Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Dalcha Lungiambula
Dequan Townsend
49% 51%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lungiambula: 32 sig / 4 TD · Townsend: 13 sig / 0 TD
Dalcha Lungiambula
Dequan Townsend
32
Sig strikes landed
39
67
Sig strikes attempted
82
50
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
155s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Dalcha Lungiambula

"Champion"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Dequan Townsend

"The Tarantula"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33