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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Eryk Anders vs Vinicius Moreira

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos ·Target Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Eryk Anders
Vinicius Moreira
71% 29%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
18-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-6
L3
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Anders: 11 sig / 0 TD · Moreira: 2 sig / 0 TD
Eryk Anders
Vinicius Moreira
31
Sig strikes landed
30
54
Sig strikes attempted
62
46
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Eryk Anders

"Ya Boi"
18-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
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L UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
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L UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
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Blue corner
L1

Vinicius Moreira

"Mamute"
9-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
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