Main
Welterweight
Demian Maia vs Anthony Rocco Martin
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
·Target Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Anthony Rocco Martin
52%
48%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
42
Age
Δ 12y
30
29-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-6
W1
Current streak
W4
23
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Maia: 3 sig / 3 TD ·
Martin: 22 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Anthony Rocco Martin
27
Sig strikes landed
44
65
Sig strikes attempted
102
59
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
7.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
238s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
23 fights · 15-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
Blue corner
W4
Anthony Rocco Martin
18-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—