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Drew Dober vs Marco Polo Reyes

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos ·Target Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Marco Polo Reyes
86% 14%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
29-16
Career record
Δ 14 pp
8-8
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dober: 16 sig / 0 TD · Reyes: 5 sig / 0 TD
Drew Dober
Marco Polo Reyes
50
Sig strikes landed
36
107
Sig strikes attempted
96
59
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
152s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Drew Dober

29-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 12 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
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W UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
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W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
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W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
L1

Marco Polo Reyes

8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—