Main
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield vs Paul Craig
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
·Target Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alonzo Menifield
Paul Craig
73%
27%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
19-6-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
18-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Menifield: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Craig: 7 sig / 0 TD
Alonzo Menifield
Paul Craig
30
Sig strikes landed
22
52
Sig strikes attempted
55
42
Total strikes landed
25
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.00
70s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
19-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
18-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—