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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Bea Malecki vs Duda Santana

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Bea Malecki
Duda Santana
52% 48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
28
Age
Δ 4y
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Malecki: 19 sig / 0 TD · Santana: 42 sig / 3 TD
Bea Malecki
Duda Santana
29
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
66
57
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bea Malecki

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Duda Santana

"Cowboyzinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23